• ISSN: 2301-3567 (Print), 2972-3981 (Online)
    • Abbreviated Title: J. Econ. Bus. Manag.
    • Frequency: Quarterly
    • DOI: 10.18178/JOEBM
    • Editor-in-Chief: Prof. Eunjin Hwang
    • Executive Editor: Ms. Fiona Chu
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HOME > Archive > 2015 > Volume 3 Number 6 (Jun. 2015) >
JOEBM 2015 Vol.3(6): 656-660 ISSN: 2301-3567
DOI: 10.7763/JOEBM.2015.V3.261

Dating the Serbian Business Cycles

Dragan Vukmirovic, Rade Ciric, Mirjana Smolcic, Svetlana Jelic, and Suzana Karamarkovic

Abstract—The paper presents the basic results of cyclical analysis of the Serbian economic activity in the period from January 2001 to September 2013. The time series used as the indicator of the dynamics of the national economic activity is monthly gross domestic product (GDP). For dating turning points two approaches are applied: classical and growth cycle, i.e. deviations from trend. According to the classical approach the cycles are defined by trend-cycle component as the changes on the absolute level of economic activity. Growth cycle approach anticipates the fluctuations in absolute level of economic activity level, as well as the fluctuations in relative level of economic activity. For identifying long-term trends applied was the Hodric-Prescott filter, while the turning points (peaks and troughs) were determined in accordance with the Bry-Boschan criteria.

Index Terms—Business cycle, monthly GDP, turning points, Serbia.

The authors are with the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, Senior Advisers, Belgrade, Serbia (e-mail: dragan.vukmirovic@stat.gov.rs, rade.ciric@stat.gov.rs, mirjana.smolcic@stat.gov.rs, svetlana.jelic@stat.gov.rs, suzana.karamarkovic@stat.gov.rs).

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Cite: Dragan Vukmirovic, Rade Ciric, Mirjana Smolcic, Svetlana Jelic, and Suzana Karamarkovic, "Dating the Serbian Business Cycles," Journal of Economics, Business and Management vol. 3, no. 6, pp. 656-660, 2015.

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