• ISSN: 2301-3567 (Print), 2972-3981 (Online)
    • Abbreviated Title: J. Econ. Bus. Manag.
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    • DOI: 10.18178/JOEBM
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HOME > Archive > 2016 > Volume 4 Number 7 (Jul. 2016) >
JOEBM 2016 Vol.4(7): 466-471 ISSN: 2301-3567
DOI: 10.18178/joebm.2016.4.7.436

The Impact of Incarceration Rates on Crime in Canada: An Econometric Analysis of Panel Data for Six Provinces, 2002-2012

Kellie H. Johnston

Abstract— This paper conducts an econometric analysis of the impact of incarceration rates on crime rates using panel data from six Canadian provinces: Nova Scotia, Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Alberta and British Columbia during the years 2002-2012. This paper employs an empirical model based on the effect of incarceration rates per 100,000 population on crime rates (the number of incidents per 100,000 population) as well as the effects of three right-hand side variables, the unemployment rate, the rate of police officers per 100,000 population, and the postsecondary graduation rate. This model is used in both levels model regression and log-log model regression through which the right-hand side variables, province dummy variables and robust standard errors are added in a total of eight individual models. The results demonstrate that incarceration rates per 100,000 adults do have an impact on crime rates and that in all models except the levels model 1 and log-log model 1, the effect was negatively related. This finding has policy implications for Canada’s current policy climate surrounding the federal Conservative’s tough-on-crime agenda and the effective reduction of crime rates in a time of fiscal restraint.

Index Terms— Conservatives, crime, incarceration, police officers, policy, postsecondary graduation, unemployment.

Kellie H. Johnston is with the University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada (e-mail: khjohnst@uwaterloo.ca).

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Cite: Kellie H. Johnston, " The Impact of Incarceration Rates on Crime in Canada: An Econometric Analysis of Panel Data for Six Provinces, 2002-2012," Journal of Economics, Business and Management vol. 4, no. 7, pp. 466-471, 2016.

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