• ISSN: 2301-3567 (Print)
    • Frequency: Quarterly (2013-2014); Monthly (2015-2017); Quarterly (Since 2018)
    • DOI: 10.18178/JOEBM
    • Editor-in-Chief: Prof. Eunjin Hwang
    • Executive Editor: Ms. Mia Hu
    • Abstracting/ Indexing:  Electronic Journals Library, Ulrich's Periodicals Directory, MESLibrary, Google Scholar, and Crossref.
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JOEBM 2019 Vol.7(2): 45-49 ISSN: 2301-3567
DOI: 10.18178/joebm.2019.7.2.579

Prediction of Total Tax Value Based on Grey BP Correction Model

Lili Ma, Mingchun Shi, Yuefeng Li, and Yang Liu
Abstract—At present, China's tax policy is in a state of constant adjustment, seeking rules from the development of tax reform policies and mastering their development trend, in order to provide scientific basis for reasonable prediction of tax revenue. Aiming at the prediction of total tax revenue, this paper first USES the grey prediction model and BP neural network to predict the total tax revenue of 2011-2016 based on the actual total tax revenue of the country from 2011 to 2016. The average relative error of the grey prediction model and BP neural network is 7.83% and 6.04%. Then, the grey prediction model is used to process the tax data, and the error residual sequence between actual value and predicted value is obtained. Then, the grey BP modified model is established to accumulate the predicted value of the grey prediction model and the predicted residual, and the predicted value of the tax revenue in 2018-2025 is obtained. The results show that the average relative error is reduced from 7.25% to 0.25%, and the prediction accuracy is improved obviously. This indicates that the predicted total tax value predicted by the grey BP modified model is more representative and can better reflect the actual tax work.

Index Terms—BP neural network, grey prediction model, grey BP correction model, tax forecast.

The authors are with the Harbin University of Science and Technology, China (e-mail: 961566805@qq.com).

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Cite: Lili Ma, Mingchun Shi, Yuefeng Li, and Yang Liu, "Prediction of Total Tax Value Based on Grey BP Correction Model," Journal of Economics, Business and Management vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 45-49, 2019.

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